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6 month performance update - TQQQ For The Long Term
The Hard Road Newsletter
Jacob Traut
July 31st, 2023
Back at it again.
I’m gonna give a bit of an update on what has grown to be one of the most popular families of strategies in the Community. The strategy that I wrote about in the first Community Spotlight I wrote back in January 2023.
TQQQ For The Long Term
Its been an interesting 6 months for the OG.
When you dig in to the backtests, the dip buying has not been treating us kindly the last few months, grabbing UVXY at seemingly the worst times. These devastatingly bad buys on UVXY account for almost all the underperformance, the rest of the logic has held up incredibly well, and the odds eventually should balance out on UVXY.
We’re beating both SPY and the classic 60/40 portfolio (no surprise there) but underperforming buy and hold TQQQ (again, no surprise there. QQQ has been on a faceripping rally for 6 months.) The real test in my opinion will be when there is a shift in regime away from “sustained, overwhelming bull market.”
So what’s new with the family?
The newest, latest, and greatest.
Be warned, anything you see marked with the same name of the above symphony with metrics before 7/21/2023 is actually this symphony.
There was an edit between these two versions that altered when VIX products would be bough. Time will tell what wins though, the countdown clock begins again with Out-Of-Sample dates that are less than a week old!
As with any “brand new” strategy, even if they have the blessing of the Master Architects, examine their stats, examine the logic line by line. Internalize it. Ensure that if it hits a 20% drawdown, you won’t panic sell out, because that is the only surefire way to lose in this game.
Dereck actually recorded a video of the design thesis and thought process behind the original TQQQ FTLT way back when, if learning how to build strategies that exploit market trends is something that interests you, you should check out his youtube channel. Hopefully a spike in viewership will convince him to start creating more!
That does it for this week.
Very short update, I’ve been burning all of my “free time” on the entrepreneurship grind. Maybe I’ll share what I’ve been working on with you all some time, sooner rather than later!
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