The SPY has Broken!

The Hard Road Newsletter

Garen Phillips
March 13th, 2023

Good day, just a bit of analysis to give you

Over the 6 years of technical analysis I’ve done and the thousands of charts I’ve looked at, I’ve come to spot one that repeats over and over and over. I use to manual trade these with good success, let me walk you through what just happened on the SPY.

We’ve broken a 5 Month ascending triangle pattern!

This is a major pivot point on what’s called a continuation wedge pattern. They occur when buys and sellers taper off on a short term time frame, but the long term trend momentum pressures the price downwards to continue it’s bearish move.

Here’s my video analysis on it

Venture Capitalist Banks might be going Insolvent

Shout out to Vox Machina for sharing this video in the discord. If you haven’t yet you can join it here. This video discusses the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, the night before the FDIC took it over.

Over the course of the weekend writing this (man, news moves fast these days,) SVB has been taken over by the FDIC, caused a run on other regional banks ($SBNY has been seized by regulators as well), and promises have been made to “make depositors whole” by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC.

Sounds a lot like QE with extra steps when you dig into the idea of risk free treasuries. Zerohedge summed it up perfectly,

Ok seriously for a second, if the Fed is backstopping a facility which gives banks full collateral credit for unrealized losses due to rate hikes, the Fed is basically saying it's entire hiking cycle will reverse and all bonds will eventually trade back to par?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge)
12:14 AM • Mar 13, 2023

This will be an ongoing topic of discussion (theres already been one argument) over in the Discord Server so if you haven’t already, join us!

Learn more about the Patterns

What Is a Wedge and What Are Falling and Rising Wedge Patterns?

A wedge occurs in trading technical analysis when trend lines drawn above and below a price series chart converge into an arrow shape.

www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wedge.asp

The Ascending Triangle Pattern: What It Is, How To Trade It

An ascending triangle is a chart pattern used in technical analysis created by a horizontal and rising trendline. The pattern is considered a continuation pattern, with the breakout from the pattern typically occurring in the direction of the overall trend.

www.investopedia.com/terms/a/ascendingtriangle.asp#:~:text=An%20ascending%20triangle%20is%20a,for%20breakouts%20from%20triangle%20patterns.

That’s it for this one, join the server as we collectively shit our pants about the state of the financial system!

Join the Composer.Trade Unofficial Discord Server!

A hub for education & collaboration to learn how markets move & how to build auto investing machines | 847 members

discord.com/invite/EeAyWG4RJd

Please note that the information provided is for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be financial advice. The information provided is not a substitute for professional advice and should not be relied upon as such. Always consult a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. Additionally, The Hard Road staff and contributors may have a stake in the Securities, Cryptocurrencies, Platforms, and other assets that are mentioned in this article and others.

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