Are markets about to crumble? Are they stronger than ever? Who knows.

The Hard Road Newsletter

Seriously, who knows. I certainly don’t.

Thats why robots do my trading for me.

I just like reading stuff on Twitter. I mean… X. RIP the brand value of Twitter. This week, we’re going to look at some of my favorite Bear Porn I found on Twitter. If you’re a bear who thinks everything is overvalued and the world is crumbling, prepare for your Confirmation Bias hit. If you’re a Bull, prepare to be angry. If you’re unsure or don’t like labels, well, too bad. We’re doing labels today.

Some folks seem to have forgotten that student loan interest has been turned off since 2020. If nothing else, this’ll put a decent crunch on some people. Maybe it’ll have wider effects, maybe it won’t. Time will tell.

‼️ Tinfoil Hat Alert ‼️

This dude posts some of the most wild stuff I’ve seen in a while. Go browse his feed, there is some interesting stuff in there. Chart comparisons to other market crashes, discussions on macroeconomics, Politics. Its a fun one, I recommend, even if you don’t take any of the information seriously.

Humans are pattern recognition machines. We’re literally built to pick patterns out, whether it makes sense or not. Certainly patterns like this are more reasonable than Candlestick patterns like “hanging crows” and “Gravestone Doji’s.” Whether it plays out or not obviously remains to be seen.

Finally we get to the “Yield Curve Inversion” topic. One of the most confusing things about the “Soft Landing” team is that they are hoping that something that has, without fail, always signaled a recession wouldn’t signal one this time. I don’t know, but the steepest yield curve inversion ever signaling a mild and “only technical” recession doesn’t seem likely to me even if I’m unsure of exactly what will happen.

Apple has been banned from China! They’re enacting their own versions of the US Government’s ban on Huawei phones, causing a nearly 10% drop in stock price over the course of the following two days.

Ouch.

Surely that can’t be a good sign.

Another “That can’t signal something good” chart. Credit card delinquency are historically tied to recessions, but don’t seem to have a clear correlation as a leading or lagging indicator. More interesting points to watch!

Thats gonna do it for this week. Lets see what the markets have in store for us in the coming days. Its sure to be a fun time. Remember, don’t feed the bears!

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